The day before the opposition in Ottawa is expected to bring down the minority Conservative government, sparking a spring election campaign, a new poll gives the Tories a major advantage.

The latest Ipsos-Reid survey for Newstalk 1010, Postmedia News, and Global TV finds country-wide support for the Conservatives has spiked by three points in the last two weeks to 43%.

"You sort of wonder if it's their high-water mark," warns pollster Darrell Bricker.

He notes the Conservatives risk not being able to hold on to all that support over a campaign.

The Liberals are down three points to 24% support, though Bricker says there is some merit to the Grit strategy of hoping voters who hear the party's pitch through the campaign will cast a ballot for them.

"That's kind of hanging earrings on the pig, trying to make it look a little bit better."

The NDP vote is stable at 16 points.

The regional results also give an advantage to the Conservatives.

Ontario seems to be warming up to the Tories, who are at 46% in the province and have opened a commanding lead over the Liberals at 30%, and the NDP at 16%.

In Quebec, the Bloc would receive 41% of the vote, while the Conservatives have taken over second place at 25%, followed by the Liberals at 18% and the NDP at 13%.

The poll was conducted from March 22-23.

Ipsos-Reid surveyed a representative randomly-selected sample of 1,001 adult Canadians by telephone.

The results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.