Federal Liberals get their first chance today to
directly compare and contrast the nine candidates promising to lead
their once-mighty party out of the political wilderness.
   
The four women and five men will square off this afternoon in
Vancouver in the first of five leadership debates to be held across
the country.
   
There's a lot potentially at stake for each of the candidates but
the unwieldy number of contenders limits the ability of any to
shine.
   
Each will have only about 10 minutes, in total, during the
two-hour event in which to make their mark.
   
To the extent that any punches are thrown, they'll likely be
aimed almost exclusively at prohibitive favourite Justin Trudeau as
rivals attempt to narrow his presumed, enormous lead.
   
The Montreal MP will be under pressure to demonstrate that he
deserves the mantle of front-runner, deflecting any jabs with
aplomb, avoiding any serious stumbles and displaying depth and
substance, as well as his undisputed charm.
   
For rival contenders with relatively high profiles _ MPs Marc
Garneau and Joyce Murray, former cabinet minister Martin Cauchon and
former MP Martha Hall Findlay _ the task is twofold: put paid to the
perception that Trudeau is unstoppable and position themselves as
the best alternative.
   
For the clutch of lesser-known, never-elected candidates _
Toronto lawyers George Takach and Deborah Coyne, Ottawa lawyer David
Bertschi and retired military officer Karen McCrimmon _ the debate
offers their best chance to date to demonstrate that they should be
considered serious contenders.
   
Party officials say the first debate is sold out, with some 800
Liberals paying $20 a pop for the privilege of attending. Thousands
more are expected to tune in online or by television.
   
Each candidate is to make brief opening and closing statements.
The bulk of the two hours will be taken up by a series of three-way
debates in which candidates respond to 14 questions, including 12
pre-selected questions from audience members.
   
Topics include foreign ownership, aboriginal affairs, the
environment, social housing, Pacific Rim trade and electoral
co-operation.
   
The western tilt to the subject matters, the inclusion of
electoral co-operation and a hometown audience may work to the
advantage of Vancouver MP Murray. She's the only western candidate
in the race and the only one to advocate one-time co-operation among
Liberals, New Democrats and Greens to ensure defeat of the
Conservatives in the next election.
   
Liberal members and supporters are to vote by phone and online
for their next leader throughout the week of April 7, with the
winner to be announced on April 14.
   
The dynamic of today's first debate could well be influenced by
the fact that Liberals will vote by preferential ballot, marking
their first, second, third and subsequent choices. When a voter's
first choice is knocked off the ballot, their second choice is
counted, and so on, until one candidate emerges with more than 50
per cent.
   
Anyone hoping to make a come-from-behind win will have to gain
support from rival candidates as they drop off the ballot. As a
result, none of the dark horses is likely to say anything during the
debate to alienate supporters of their fellow long-shots.
   
However, they could theoretically take shots at Trudeau with
impunity. As the front-runner, his supporters' second and third
choices are never likely to be counted so it matters little if
they're angered by attacks on their main man.
   
Even so, Trudeau's challengers are likely to show restraint,
conscious that many Liberals would never forgive a candidate who
launched a no-holds-barred assault on the probable winner, thereby
handing the Conservatives devastating fodder for their next wave of
attack ads.
   
Liberals haven't forgotten that the Tories used footage from the
2006 Liberal leadership debates to skewer the winner of that
contest, Stephane Dion.

(The Canadian Press)