EXCLUSIVE POLL: Tories would form government

Ipsos Reid says Tim Hudak would be premier if vote were held today

If a provincial vote was held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives would likely form the government at Queen's Park.

That's according to the latest poll done by Ipsos Reid for Newstalk 1010, CTV and CP24.

Tim Hudak's Tories would get 37 per cent support, followed by Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals with 32 per cent. Andrea Horwath's NDP isn't far behind with 27 per cent support. The Green Party has five per cent of the vote.

Two in ten Ontarians are still undecided.

Senior Vice President of Ipsos Reid John Wright says the Tories even have the potential to form a majority government.

Wright reveals Tory supporters appear to be the most passionate, being the most likely ones to mark their ballots on election day.  Because of that, PC support would skyrocket to 42 per cent on election day. The Liberals would shrink to 27 per cent and the NDP would be uncharged.

He points out that the Liberals have strong support in Toronto-proper, with 40 per cent of the vote. However, outside of the 416, voters are mostly seeing blue. The Progressive Conservatives have 47 per cent support in the rest of the GTA, 37 per cent support in Southwestern Ontario and 39 per cent in the Eastern part of the province.

The NDP continues to be a force in Northern Ontario with 43 per cent of the vote.

As for who voters think will make the best premier, 32 per cent of those polled say Hudak is the person for the job. However, it's a tight race with 31 per cent rallying behind Wynne and 28 per cent vouching for Horwath.

The minority Liberals will be tabling their budget on May 1st. It's expected to trigger an election campaign. If that happens, the vote would be on a Thursday between June 5th and July 3rd.

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  1. Jack posted on 04/24/2014 07:07 PM
    The choice is clear: Hudak for Premier! After ten long years of this province being a have-not Liberal hellhole, once we have Tim in the head office at Queen's Park with a strong Blue majority backing him up, we can finally start cleaning up Ontario again.
  2. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/24/2014 07:47 PM
    1. The pollsters are wrong more than they are right.
    2. There has never been a successful economy run by the provincial Conservatives.
    3. Hudak packs his socks in a road map so he can find his way home on the weekend.
    5. The Con bench has a dearth of non-talent.
    4. The best Hudak can get is a minority with a life expectancy of 6-9 months.
    1. Dispelling the Cocservative Myth posted on 04/24/2014 07:50 PM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Apparently I got my words abvove ok ... but my numbering needs a fix.
      Oh well ... neither Hudak nor the pollsters would likely notice the error.
    2. Mark7 posted on 04/25/2014 11:55 AM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Spare us your leftie bs rhetoric please.
  3. David posted on 04/24/2014 08:39 PM
    Dispelling the Conservative Myth- Wow, I'm impressed with your numbering system. Send your resume to Wynne and I'm sure you could be the next finance minister. Regarding Item #5, which should be #4- Please update us regarding the talent on the liberal bench. They have all done such a great job (gag). Oh the great Ontario Sheeple.
    1. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/24/2014 09:14 PM
      @David 1. The Liberal bench - weak though they may be - at least can read, write and speak. The same cannot be said for the majority of the Con bench.
      2. Seriously - after much research and an extensive search of the records of the Con members - I can report the following:
      Hudak's greatest achievement - leaving WalMart to advance to collecting tolls at the Fort Erie border.
      The bench's greatest achievement - a combined average IQ of 87 (ouch!!) and completing the reading of Winnie the Pooh aloud and almost together.
  4. David posted on 04/24/2014 09:33 PM
    Quite the mature response Dispelling the Conservative Myth. Maybe you should spend some of your research time investigating the massive debt that the provincial liberals are responsible for. Perhaps you could investigate the criminal behaviour involved with deleting emails. Please respond with the achievements of the MCGuilty/Wynne governments. Stay focused and don't respond with silly comments. You don't do yourself any favours in trying to make cute comments, you just look uninformed. Why would you continue to support a government that has wasted billions of dollars? That money could be spent on healthcare, repairing infrastructure or reducing debt. Last question- do your government kickbacks come by mail or direct deposit?
    1. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/25/2014 05:47 AM
      @David One cannot make excuses for the horrible job done in the McGuinty years.
      He, like our current federal Prime Minister, was a power freak and rammed through some very questionable and expensive measures, while seeing to it that loyal Liberals were rewarded.

      One also should also not forget the worst "ruins" in the province's history from the Harris nitwits and their slash and burn measures that left the province sadly in need of services and infrastructure - all of which cost money. McGunity was handed a lemon but failed to turn it into lemonade.

      This time around we are facing the following in terms of provincial leadership.
      The NDP - Andrea Horwath proves on a daily basis that she is willing to do virtually anything in a futile attempt to become Premier. Her style of leadership is positively frightening.
      The Conservatives - Tim Hudak proves on a daily basis that he is the weakest leader the Cons have ever had (with the possible exception of Frank Miller for 4 months in 1985). He puts his foot into his mouth almost as much as Rob Ford does.
      The Liberals - Kathleen Wynne - love her or hate her - she is a massive improvement over the other 2 as well as McGuinty in terms of leadership ability.

      This election will give us the following choices.
      Vote NDP - and go down the bankruptcy path again.
      Vote Con - and go down the slash and burn path again.
      Vote Lib - and hope that Wynne is more ethical than McGuinty was.

      It's not a pretty picture anywhere you look.
  5. don was right posted on 04/24/2014 09:36 PM
    Warren Kinsella and Suzanne Amos is that you. Or SEAK and Baywatch consulting?
  6. Inevitable Outcome posted on 04/25/2014 08:35 AM
    Have faith ... Hudak will prove once again that he can't get to the finish line ahead in the race. The latest 37% poll results for Hudak are not as high as the lead he blew last time around.
  7. Sam posted on 04/25/2014 09:45 AM
    Can anyone tell me the last time when Ipsos Reid got polling results correct?

    I thought so.
  8. Frankie posted on 04/25/2014 10:05 AM
    Our choices are -

    NDP - their mandate is socialism so we know they will waste our tax dollars foolishly

    Liberals - they will lie about being responsible however after 11 years of the most corrupt, wasteful and lying government in at least the last 75 years, we know how they'll run this province into the ground

    Conservatives - Hudak isn't likeable and no one knows what promises he'll keep or not, but there's a chance he could actually run a good government

    The election will come down to either a 100% guarantee of the worst possible government (Liberals) OR the possibility of a good government.

    The choice should be obvious to anyone with minimal intelligence.
    1. Hank posted on 04/25/2014 10:33 AM
      @Frankie Absolutely. Tim Hudak isn't even the lesser of three evils; he's more like the only guy in the prison yard without murder on his record.

      It's not perfect, but the choice is clear: Hudak for Premier.
  9. arthur posted on 04/25/2014 10:31 AM
    polls are for trolls. problem chain gang Tim has is the vote is not today and as soon as he starts talking people just shake their heads and his numbers go down.
    he will never be PM here or anywhere
  10. john posted on 04/25/2014 11:01 AM
    good now we can clean out the liberal scum out of office . get some hazmat people in there and clean out the toxic sludge form the building before someone gets hurt .
    1. john's mom posted on 04/25/2014 11:31 AM
      @john Roses are red,
      Violets are blue,
      I speak good English,
      Would you please try it too?
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