EXCLUSIVE POLL: Tories would form government

Ipsos Reid says Tim Hudak would be premier if vote were held today

If a provincial vote was held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives would likely form the government at Queen's Park.

That's according to the latest poll done by Ipsos Reid for Newstalk 1010, CTV and CP24.

Tim Hudak's Tories would get 37 per cent support, followed by Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals with 32 per cent. Andrea Horwath's NDP isn't far behind with 27 per cent support. The Green Party has five per cent of the vote.

Two in ten Ontarians are still undecided.

Senior Vice President of Ipsos Reid John Wright says the Tories even have the potential to form a majority government.

Wright reveals Tory supporters appear to be the most passionate, being the most likely ones to mark their ballots on election day.  Because of that, PC support would skyrocket to 42 per cent on election day. The Liberals would shrink to 27 per cent and the NDP would be uncharged.

He points out that the Liberals have strong support in Toronto-proper, with 40 per cent of the vote. However, outside of the 416, voters are mostly seeing blue. The Progressive Conservatives have 47 per cent support in the rest of the GTA, 37 per cent support in Southwestern Ontario and 39 per cent in the Eastern part of the province.

The NDP continues to be a force in Northern Ontario with 43 per cent of the vote.

As for who voters think will make the best premier, 32 per cent of those polled say Hudak is the person for the job. However, it's a tight race with 31 per cent rallying behind Wynne and 28 per cent vouching for Horwath.

The minority Liberals will be tabling their budget on May 1st. It's expected to trigger an election campaign. If that happens, the vote would be on a Thursday between June 5th and July 3rd.

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  1. Jack posted on 04/24/2014 07:07 PM
    The choice is clear: Hudak for Premier! After ten long years of this province being a have-not Liberal hellhole, once we have Tim in the head office at Queen's Park with a strong Blue majority backing him up, we can finally start cleaning up Ontario again.
  2. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/24/2014 07:47 PM
    1. The pollsters are wrong more than they are right.
    2. There has never been a successful economy run by the provincial Conservatives.
    3. Hudak packs his socks in a road map so he can find his way home on the weekend.
    5. The Con bench has a dearth of non-talent.
    4. The best Hudak can get is a minority with a life expectancy of 6-9 months.
    1. Dispelling the Cocservative Myth posted on 04/24/2014 07:50 PM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Apparently I got my words abvove ok ... but my numbering needs a fix.
      Oh well ... neither Hudak nor the pollsters would likely notice the error.
    2. Mark7 posted on 04/25/2014 11:55 AM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Spare us your leftie bs rhetoric please.
  3. David posted on 04/24/2014 08:39 PM
    Dispelling the Conservative Myth- Wow, I'm impressed with your numbering system. Send your resume to Wynne and I'm sure you could be the next finance minister. Regarding Item #5, which should be #4- Please update us regarding the talent on the liberal bench. They have all done such a great job (gag). Oh the great Ontario Sheeple.
    1. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/24/2014 09:14 PM
      @David 1. The Liberal bench - weak though they may be - at least can read, write and speak. The same cannot be said for the majority of the Con bench.
      2. Seriously - after much research and an extensive search of the records of the Con members - I can report the following:
      Hudak's greatest achievement - leaving WalMart to advance to collecting tolls at the Fort Erie border.
      The bench's greatest achievement - a combined average IQ of 87 (ouch!!) and completing the reading of Winnie the Pooh aloud and almost together.
  4. David posted on 04/24/2014 09:33 PM
    Quite the mature response Dispelling the Conservative Myth. Maybe you should spend some of your research time investigating the massive debt that the provincial liberals are responsible for. Perhaps you could investigate the criminal behaviour involved with deleting emails. Please respond with the achievements of the MCGuilty/Wynne governments. Stay focused and don't respond with silly comments. You don't do yourself any favours in trying to make cute comments, you just look uninformed. Why would you continue to support a government that has wasted billions of dollars? That money could be spent on healthcare, repairing infrastructure or reducing debt. Last question- do your government kickbacks come by mail or direct deposit?
    1. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/25/2014 05:47 AM
      @David One cannot make excuses for the horrible job done in the McGuinty years.
      He, like our current federal Prime Minister, was a power freak and rammed through some very questionable and expensive measures, while seeing to it that loyal Liberals were rewarded.

      One also should also not forget the worst "ruins" in the province's history from the Harris nitwits and their slash and burn measures that left the province sadly in need of services and infrastructure - all of which cost money. McGunity was handed a lemon but failed to turn it into lemonade.

      This time around we are facing the following in terms of provincial leadership.
      The NDP - Andrea Horwath proves on a daily basis that she is willing to do virtually anything in a futile attempt to become Premier. Her style of leadership is positively frightening.
      The Conservatives - Tim Hudak proves on a daily basis that he is the weakest leader the Cons have ever had (with the possible exception of Frank Miller for 4 months in 1985). He puts his foot into his mouth almost as much as Rob Ford does.
      The Liberals - Kathleen Wynne - love her or hate her - she is a massive improvement over the other 2 as well as McGuinty in terms of leadership ability.

      This election will give us the following choices.
      Vote NDP - and go down the bankruptcy path again.
      Vote Con - and go down the slash and burn path again.
      Vote Lib - and hope that Wynne is more ethical than McGuinty was.

      It's not a pretty picture anywhere you look.
    2. David posted on 04/25/2014 06:31 AM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Considering you didn't respond with one accomplishment of the McGuinty years, it appears you acknowledge they have beeen a brutal government. However, you will continue to support them. When Wynne won the leadership, her first comment at the convention was, "we look forward to carrying on the McGuinty leagacy". She has done a great job of that. When all the scandals were happening with the McGuinty government, how many liberal MPP's stepped aside and said they refused to put up with this behaviour. The Answer 0. Did Wynne- of course not. If my company had that type of unethical management, I would immediately look for another job. I know all I need to know about Wynnes ethics. You seemed concerned about slashing and burning under a Hudak government. I'm not in favour of that either, but responsible spending and turning off the taps is important for this province. The province adds $392 a second to the debt. I didn't get an answer to my last questions, so please try with this one. When does the debt become too much in your eyes. $300 billion, 600 billion, one trillion. It is basic math, when debt increases there is less money to spend on important government departments. It will take many generations to deal with this debt. We don't have the money, but every day the Wynne government is announcing new expenditures. This is the government you continue to support. Tick Tock goes the debt clock!!!
    3. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/25/2014 06:44 AM
      @David OK - I give up - you refuse to see that "slash and burn" is the fastest way to financial ruin.
      The debt numbers are unsustainable - but hoping for Hudak, (whose wife was Harris' right hand girl while Hudak himself admits that Harris is his hero and keeps him as a paid advisor), will not bring "responsible spending" as you say. It will be the kind of slash and burn that will bring us right back to no services accompanied by the same high taxes that got us into this mess in the first place.
      I repeat my challenge to you - find 1 (just 1) successful economy, either federal or provincial, that followed Con economic ideology. It has NEVER happened in our history.
    4. David posted on 04/25/2014 07:12 AM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Just curious what riding you represent for the liberals. You must be a politician as whenever I ask a question, you immediately deflect and refuse to give a direct answer. Either that or you have no facts to back your case. You acknowledge the debt numbers are unsustainable, but the Wynne government continues to pile on the debt with new announcements. You want to continue to support this? I ask again, how much is too much?

      Please tell me again when I said that I was in favour of slash and burn? You really stretch with your responses.

      Regarding your challenge to me- unlike you, I don't blindly support political parties. I will give my vote to the party which I feel will do the best job. Therefore, I don't feel I need to provide you with a list of Conservative accomplishments. The liberals have destroyed this once great province. I would vote either Conservative or NDP (ouch) if it meant getting rid of the criminals in charge now. If the new government did a bad job, I would vote them out at the next election. Take your blinders off once in a while. There is a great big world to see. You seem interested in conservative history, but keep your blinders on with liberal history.
    5. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/25/2014 08:14 AM
      @David I give up on you ... feel free to vote with your feet ... and enjoy the carnage that would follow a Hudak / Harris resurrection.

      As far as your "choice" not to list Conservative economic accomplishments, the real reason is obvious isn't it? Sounds a lot like too much work for little or no reward.
    6. Angry Bill posted on 04/25/2014 09:21 AM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth It would sure be a refreshing change from the carnage that the current fiberal government has put us through for the past 10 years. I'll take my chances with the conservatives, thank you very much, if my only other choice is the fiberals, who have a PROVEN track record. An no, that wasn't a compliment.

      Oh, and you want me to start listing liberal "accomplishments" over the past 10 years? I'd love to, starting with ORNGE, Caledonia, power plants, deleted emails, and the list goes on and on.
    7. Mark7 posted on 04/25/2014 11:57 AM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Like David refuse to show Wynne's accomplishments and run fast and hard from the query. That is because there are none, coward!
    8. Mark7 posted on 04/25/2014 12:01 PM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Since the criminal Fiberals have had the power for the majority of my 50 years of life, how to you suggest the Cons can fix it? The Cons try to but it would take many CONSECUTIVE TERMS for them to make a marketable difference. That is because of FOOLS who keep loving to be ripped off by the criminal Fiberals. Will you lefties ever get a brain? As bad as the NDP is, even they would be a better choice than the criminal Fiberals.

      Some peoples' children, sigh.
    9. Frankie posted on 04/25/2014 12:40 PM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth In 100 years time Liberals will still blame the Harris government. These people remind me of movie scenes where actors are in an insane asylum repeating the same mantra over and over.

      They have no choice because they have no valid arguments to make.

      Mike Harris also laid out his agenda before the election and did EXACTLY what he said he'd do, so there were no surprises for his first term.

      The Liberals are like the Eveready battery, they just lie and lie and lie and keep on lying
    10. David posted on 04/25/2014 03:38 PM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Your first post listed some silly cute little comments regarding the conservatives IQ. It is becoming apparent that you make these comments because other than the standard lines that you are fed, you really don't understand the issues. You are obviously in way over your head.

      You criticize me because I didn't list conservative accomplishments, a party I don't blindly support, but do feel at this time would be a far better choice. However, I have asked you to answer multiple questions, including to list liberal accomplishments, but you refuse to answer any of them.

      Try to focus and answer the questions that are asked. Don't deflect. Lets try again, how much DEBT is too much in your eyes? Since this morning, the provincial debt has grown by 1.4 million dollars. Is that okay with you? Do you feel that anything should be done about that? Where would you cut spending? Stay with us and try to answer the tough questions.

      You can continue to keep spinning but all you do is create a deeper hole and look silly. Mark7 wants answers. Angry Bill wants answers and so do I.

      By the way, I'm now sure you get your provincial $ through direct deposit. Take a look, I'm sure it's there and has added more to the debt.

      If Hudak/Harris are always joined together is it okay to do the same with Wynne/McGuinty? Can't have it both ways, as hard as you try.

      I would gladly go back to the Harris days, a man who followed through on his promises. McGuinty and Wynne have led the most disgusting provincial government is this countries history. You know had sad this situation has become when I would be willing to vote NDP to keep this liberal group from Queens Park.
    11. Dispelling the Conservative Myth posted on 04/25/2014 05:57 PM
      @Mark7 Regarding: "... Since the criminal Fiberals have had the power for the majority of my 50 years of life ... "
      Sorry about the rock you've been under for most of those 50 years, but the facts are that in the last 55 years the Cons have held the power for almost 35 of them, the Liberals 16 and the NDP almost 5.

      That should answer your own question for you.
      To quote you "sigh".
    12. David posted on 04/25/2014 06:14 PM
      @Dispelling the Conservative Myth Still waiting for the answers to my questions. Thanks for pointing out that the liberals have held power for 16 of the past 55 years. Haven't they been great times. Honest politicians that have never lied to us (cough, cough). This province was the economic engine of the country. It is now becoming a joke thanks to the McGuilty/Wynne gang. It's almost 6:15, I wonder how many new millions Wynne has offered up today.
  5. don was right posted on 04/24/2014 09:36 PM
    Warren Kinsella and Suzanne Amos is that you. Or SEAK and Baywatch consulting?
  6. Inevitable Outcome posted on 04/25/2014 08:35 AM
    Have faith ... Hudak will prove once again that he can't get to the finish line ahead in the race. The latest 37% poll results for Hudak are not as high as the lead he blew last time around.
  7. Sam posted on 04/25/2014 09:45 AM
    Can anyone tell me the last time when Ipsos Reid got polling results correct?

    I thought so.
  8. Frankie posted on 04/25/2014 10:05 AM
    Our choices are -

    NDP - their mandate is socialism so we know they will waste our tax dollars foolishly

    Liberals - they will lie about being responsible however after 11 years of the most corrupt, wasteful and lying government in at least the last 75 years, we know how they'll run this province into the ground

    Conservatives - Hudak isn't likeable and no one knows what promises he'll keep or not, but there's a chance he could actually run a good government

    The election will come down to either a 100% guarantee of the worst possible government (Liberals) OR the possibility of a good government.

    The choice should be obvious to anyone with minimal intelligence.
    1. Hank posted on 04/25/2014 10:33 AM
      @Frankie Absolutely. Tim Hudak isn't even the lesser of three evils; he's more like the only guy in the prison yard without murder on his record.

      It's not perfect, but the choice is clear: Hudak for Premier.
  9. arthur posted on 04/25/2014 10:31 AM
    polls are for trolls. problem chain gang Tim has is the vote is not today and as soon as he starts talking people just shake their heads and his numbers go down.
    he will never be PM here or anywhere
  10. john posted on 04/25/2014 11:01 AM
    good now we can clean out the liberal scum out of office . get some hazmat people in there and clean out the toxic sludge form the building before someone gets hurt .
    1. john's mom posted on 04/25/2014 11:31 AM
      @john Roses are red,
      Violets are blue,
      I speak good English,
      Would you please try it too?
    2. Angry Bill posted on 04/25/2014 11:52 AM
      @john's mom This, folks, is an example of "cyber bullying". It is no different than pointing and laughing at someone in a wheelchair because they don't walk as well as you do. john doesn't spell like an English major, not because he's lazy, but because he can't. Why don't you try to walk a mile in john's shoes before making fun of him?

      Bottom line, john isn't afraid of posting here with his opinions. No one should be.

      Grow up. This isn't public school.
    3. Mark7 posted on 04/25/2014 11:53 AM
      @john's mom Oh please! Get a life!
    4. john's mom posted on 04/25/2014 12:07 PM
      @Angry Bill John has admitted in numerous previous posts that his English is just fine. He won't bother to attempt reasonable posts because it is "his teachers faults" (his words, not mine)

      And please ... "bullying"???
      Now there's hysterical reaction using the malady of the day.
    5. Angry Bill posted on 04/25/2014 12:38 PM
      @john's mom Yeah. I'm hysterical. You got me.

      If you CAN spell and use proper grammar, it is a lot more difficult than you think to deliberately misspell words and use bad grammar. I really doubt john has that kind of patience to deliberately render most of his posts illegible.

      And your response is typical of that of all bullies. You actually don't believe that what you are doing is in any way wrong. You believe you are entitled to belittling others.

      How about putting on your big girl panties, and try attacking the argument rather than the person? You attack the person, all you are doing is telling everyone here that you HAVE no valid argument. And therefore your opinion doesn't count. That goes for everyone who does it, not just you. Though I do suspect it's just the same person who's trolling all over this forum pretending to be other people.
    6. john posted on 04/25/2014 01:19 PM
      @john's mom ( slap ) shut up troll before a gnome kicks your ass .
    7. john posted on 04/25/2014 01:36 PM
      @Angry Bill sadly unlike some people who are being cyber bulled i have the balls to fight back . more then the person who has the balls to be the bully . qustin is dos the bully have the balls not be a bully ?
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