New Ipsos-Reid survey finds Tories lead among supporters who plan to vote

When it comes to decided and committed voters, the Tories have the most motivated support

The latest opinion poll shows the Tories still lead among decided voters but the Liberals are gaining.

The latest opinion poll about the Ontario election shows support for the Ontario Liberals is growing, but the numbers can be deceiving.

A closer look reveals those supporters are less likely to actually get out and vote.

New online polling taken this week by Ipsos-Reid for CTV and CP24 finds the Liberals are up 3 points -- just 2 percent behind the Tories -- who gained 1 point, for 36 percent support.

Andrea Horwath's New Democrats slipped 5 points, to 23 percent of decided voters.

When it comes to decided and committed voters, the Tories have the most motivated support.

41 percent will vote for the Progressive-Conservatives, while support for the Liberals is down to 29 percent and the NDP is up -- to 25 percent.

"That's pretty much a majority government for the Tories, if that vote turns out," says Ipsos-Reid's John Wright.

About 870 Ontarians took part in the survey.

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  1. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 06:27 PM
    Tim Hudak will take this provinces working families to the lowest level in Ontario's history.
    The choices are slime in this election. No one is that good. But Tim Hudak is the poorest choice with his falsely called "Right to Work' American Republican Tea Party politics.

    Vote John Tory for Mayor of Toronto!
    1. David posted on 05/29/2014 10:06 PM
      @Alex Are you so blind that you can ignore the fact that the Liberals are proven liars and thiefs?
      Fact: Dalton McGuinty promised not to raise taxes. After he was elected in 2003 he imposed the greatest tax grab in Ontario History. A few years later he imposed the HST which added the provincial 8% sales tax to necessities like electricity.
      Fact: In 2003 McGuinty pledged in writing "I promise if my party is elected as the next government that I will: not raise taxes or implement new taxes without the explicit consent of Ontario voters and not to run deficits.” He broke these promises.
      Fact: "We will measure every investment against results." If the Liberals kept this promise we would not have Ehealth, Ornge and the moving of the gas plants.
      Fact: 'We will not raise the debt". The Liberals have doubled Ontario's debt. Paying the interest on that debt is the third largest expenditure after health and education.
      There many more examples I can give but you get the point.
      So answer this. If the Liberals continue on their present course Ontario could become like Greece. Do you want that to happen?
    2. Alex posted on 05/30/2014 06:23 AM
      @David Show me where I suggested you vote 'Liberal'?
    3. john posted on 05/30/2014 10:27 AM
      @Alex oh please this working families thing is a bullshit croup made up by the liberals to scare voters into voting liberal . i am to hard core to be scared .

      David ever heard of acid ?
  2. Sonny posted on 05/29/2014 06:46 PM
    These Ipsos polls are so scewed when there are 4 parties and John Wright is shilling for the Cons turnout
    1. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 06:55 PM
      @Sonny I think the polls are in general very accurate but certainly the mood of the people wavers back and forth because of the undecided vote.
      Then there are those who vote for the party know matter what.
      I support the party that the province needs at this time and at this time (or any time) Tim Hudak has very very dangerous ideas for the families of working Ontario residents

      Vote John Tory for Toronto mayor.
    2. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 07:09 PM
      @Sonny By "dangerous," of course I mean the danger of earning more money than they absolutely need to survive when Hudak creates hundreds of thousands of new full-time jobs. The ugliest thing in the world is watching people be rewarded for their efforts, when there are people on welfare not lifting a finger who need help so much more.

      It's a sin to help someone who's earned it when the people who haven't earned it are still so sad. That's why I oppose the PCs: It would allow too many people to get off welfare and earn peace of mind for themselves. It's just nobler for them, and everyone else, to be given nothing but scraps regardless of how hard they work.

      Unless they're in a union, of course. Then they deserve the sky and beyond.

      Vote John Tory for Toronto mayor.
    3. john posted on 05/30/2014 10:35 AM
      @Sonny it better be a con turnout . hudack is not the sharpest tool in the shed but sometimes thay have a use at some point in life .
  3. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 06:47 PM
    This election is all about working families rights! Of course I mean the rights of the Working Families Coalition, not just any working family. Most working families have money, which means that the Working Families Coalition has the right to take as much of that money as they want, whenever they want. Because unions are good for the people!

    That's why I'm voting Liberal. Because Working Families is MY family!
  4. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 06:49 PM
    Right To Work is a load of crap, because nobody has the right to work. Unless you're part of a union, in which case you have the unalienable and unassaultable right to a job for life, even when your screwups endanger people's lives!

    The only rights anyone outside of a union has is to give their money to the union, because the union knows best. That's why the Liberals are the smartest party around, they know who's important (the unions) and who's expendable (the not-unions)
  5. Douglas posted on 05/29/2014 07:10 PM
    Anyone who uses their head to think this election through cannot possibly vote Liberal. They have totally screwed the Province in so many ways. We cannot continue with more of the same. Maybe Tim Hudak is not perfect but it comes down to a choice of do you want someone who believes in spending more (when the deficit is already almost $300 billion and climbing), OR do you want someone who believes in less spending and taking an approach to reducing the deficit. Believe me, the hole that we have already dug in the Province is massive and I am not sure any Party has the will to climb out of it or to do what it will take to climb out of it. For example, if you use Wynne's proposed 2014 budget as a base, she would overspend by $15 billion. If you did whatever it takes to turn that around and somehow miraculously were able to run a $10 billion surplus. We need to do that for 30 years just to get back to balance. I do not think anyone can make it happen, BUT clearly we cannot award Wynne with a ticket that says she did a great job and go ahead and spend more. Hudak deserves a chance to see what he can do, as the alternatives are just totally unacceptable.
    1. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 07:22 PM
      @Douglas I suggest voting for John Tory is the worst choice. Vote for who you want of course but there is not much out there.
      John Tory is going to make the weak weaker and the strong stronger.

      Vote John Tory for Mayor of Toronto.
    2. Douglas posted on 05/29/2014 07:33 PM
      @Alex Alex, you are great but get with the program. This dialogue is about the Provincial Election, not John Tory. You will have lots of time to debate Tory vs Chow later in the fall.
    3. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 07:40 PM
      @Douglas I'm afraid it's you who needs to get with the program. Haven't you realized by now that EVERYTHING is directly related to the office of the mayor of Toronto? It's why we've been focusing on Rob Ford so much, because once we Rob Ford we can't help but Rob Ford and then we Rob the Ford and Rob Ford Rob Ford

      Sorry, I got a bit carried away.
    4. Douglas posted on 05/29/2014 08:32 PM
      @Douglas Check out this report and decide for yourself where best to cast your vote.

      A new report (by Speer and Lamman) on provincial debts and deficits by Moody's, the international credit rating agency, is another piercing reminder of Ontario's serious fiscal challenges. Based on media accounts, the report warns that some provinces must take action to improve their public finances or face a possible credit downgrade. Ontario is the worst of the bunch.

      No surprise here. Ontario's shaky government finances have generated a healthy dose of public scrutiny. But any time a prominent rating agency issues a warning sign about the state of provincial indebtedness, it's worth a closer look. A future downgrade could eventually lead to higher borrowing costs for government debt.

      Moody's analyzes the ratio of provincial debt to revenue to gauge each province's capacity for managing debt. This is similar to how banks assess a family's ability to manage a mortgage. To know whether a household can safely make regular mortgage payments, the bank needs to know the family's annual income and its outstanding debt such as credit card bills, car loans, and lines of credit.

      The results do not bode well for Ontario. Provincial debt amounts to 237.7 per cent of revenue -- the highest ratio amongst the provinces. In other words, the total debt accumulated by the Ontario government represents almost two and a half years of revenues. Ontario's ratio is much higher than Quebec, the second most indebted province (189.5 per cent) on this metric.

      Moody's conclusion about Ontario's fiscal troubles may sound familiar. The government's own commission (more commonly known as the Drummond report) sounded alarm bells back in 2012.

      Even before the Drummond report, research published by the Fraser Institute highlighted the sorry state of Ontario's finances and the need for reform. A series of more recent studies has shown how badly Ontario's debt burden compares with other provinces and we've extended the analysis to include California, once the poster child for bad fiscal management. Compared to California, the situation in Ontario is worse on virtually any measure.

      Of course, Ontario's high level of government indebtedness does not come without a cost. Governments like the rest of us need to make interest payments on their debt. The Ontario government currently spends 9.2 per cent of its revenues on interest payments.

      According to the government's own estimates, this will rise to nearly 11 per cent in the next four years. But if interest rates rise faster than the government's projections, it would mean even more money going to interest payments and less to other priorities such as health care. The provincial budget suggests that a one-percentage point increase in the interest rate results in interest payments increasing by $400 million.

      Ontarians have a sobering sense of where their province currently stands with respect to debts and deficits. But where is it headed in the future?

      Towards more debt. The government expects deficits in each of the next three years, with recent projections set to mushroom. For instance, this year's deficit is now pegged at $12.5 billion or 25 per cent higher than previously expected.

      Despite these setbacks, the government still claims it can balance the budget in 2017/18 although the details are slim. The lack of a credible plan is alarming especially since the Drummond report concluded the government needed to implement no less than 360 reforms to restrain the growth in government spending or it would risk running deficits and growing debt into the foreseeable future.

      A recent Fraser Institute study projected that unless Ontario's spending patterns change, provincial debt will reach 66 per cent of the economy by 2019-20. This risk of continuous growth in government debt is precisely why Ontario must heed the warnings and better control government spending and reform its public programs.

      Moody's report reinforces the fiscal challenges in Canada's largest province. Ontario's debt problem warrants swift and decisive action.
  6. Sherwin posted on 05/29/2014 07:18 PM
    You're on a life raft with two other people, drifting in the ocean, and you're down to your last scraps of food. One of your companions has a plan to use the food as bait to catch fish for all three of you to eat and stay alive; the other is insisting that you need to just throw the food overboard, so that the fish can be a little happier while you all die of starvation.

    Tim Hudak is the fisherman. His plan has a chance for us to survive another day. Vote PC.
  7. Consider This posted on 05/29/2014 07:24 PM
    Another Ipsos-Reid right-wing faulty conclusion or downright false message.

    The more that Ipsos-Reid announces their "data", the more any thinking person knows that the Cons are about to slide badly.

    A little too early for this, perhaps, but don't rule out a Liberal majority win after all is said and done on June 12th.
    1. Alex posted on 05/29/2014 07:41 PM
      @Consider This A Liberal majority is the best-case scenario, because then we can all go on welfare where we belong! Nobody will ever have to suffer under the yoke of a job again, and it will be free money for everyone forever!
  8. Sammy from Scarborough posted on 05/30/2014 06:11 AM
    All of the nonsense Ipsos-Reid is trying to sell us here is based on the Tories being moire effective than the Liberals in getting out their vote.

    With the exception of the Davis and Harris experiences, the Tories are not nearly as well organized as the Liberals in doing so and every experience (both in elections and by-elections) with Hudak as leader has shown the Cons to be the WORST of the 3 major Parties at accomplishing the task..
    1. Sonny posted on 05/30/2014 10:30 AM
      @Sammy from Scarborough You can't trust Hudak; the masters of Economics?! from the U$
    2. Frankie posted on 05/30/2014 10:33 AM
      @Sammy from Scarborough Sadly you're correct regarding elections. As far as governing, which is far more important to our well-being, the Liberals have demonstrated corruption, incompetence, and bribery (all in political terms). Their arrogance has reached a level that requires their party being decimated the same way the Mulroney Conservatives were decimated.
  9. Alex posted on 05/30/2014 06:21 AM
    Tim Hudak is a former Walmart manager who wants the same relationship between business and its workers for Ontario that Walmart has with it's staff.

    Give business all the power and the people the option of 'take it or leave it'.

    Vote for anyone but Tim Hudak.
    1. JD posted on 05/30/2014 06:36 AM
      @Alex Keep Kathleen, and watch Ontario hit the debt wall.....
  10. JD posted on 05/30/2014 06:32 AM
    I see the Lberals are starting to panic - an 11% lead of the PCs over the Liberals. It is over guys!!! Kathleen is going the same way as Pauline in Quebec!
  11. Sophie posted on 05/30/2014 06:45 AM
    I vote for CHANGE! Time to switch things up get a new party in there for a while. If nothing else let fresh eyes look into the dusty corners and find out what's really been going on, maybe some of the damage can be undone.

    Change is good, don't be afraid.
  12. Mark posted on 05/30/2014 06:52 AM
    Anyone who plans to vote liberal should stay home. I understand why the public sector union leaches and teacher pigs want wynne bag to stay but the other "liberal" voters must be brain-dead and should stay at home and rest.

    People like Alex who post here are an example of a brain-dead idiot. He rails on about "right to work" legislation that Hudak floated but he is too stupid to know that Hudak also dropped that. All politician's float ideads and God knows the librano crew has floated all kinds of crap, but, like I said, Alex is in another world. La la land for idiots.

    We need a Hudak majority and we also need the librano thieves crushed.
  13. JD posted on 05/30/2014 07:34 AM
    What a STUPID remark by Dave Agar this morning at 7, that a Tim Hudak majority would make Mike Harris look like a socialist.

    If this is really his view, then Dave Agar is clearly beyond his past due date, and should retire!
    1. Brian posted on 05/30/2014 08:14 AM
      @JD it must be shocking to you as a right winger to realize that not everybody thinks like you - Dave Agar lives in Canada not Cuba he is entitled to his opinion. - you should be explaining what Mr. Hudak means by a million jobs - I try to read his website and it simple spin just blah blah blah!!
    2. Sammy from Scarborough posted on 05/30/2014 08:43 AM
      @JD Dave Agar is absolutely correct !!

      Do some reading (if you can).
      Harris eliminated 9,000 civil servant positions and created a 20 year mess.
      Tea Party Hudak wants to eliminate 10 times that many !!

      Hudak is very dangerous.
      Be afraid !
      Be Very afraid !!
    3. john posted on 05/30/2014 10:52 AM
      @Sammy from Scarborough the only people that should afraid of Timmy is overpaid under worked whiners unions . people who keep the gravy train going and the liberals . hard working people ( real humans ) will not be affected .
    4. john's mom posted on 05/30/2014 11:34 AM
      @john But John, don't forget that if Hudak wins you won't get any more extra help with your grade 3 English.
    5. JD posted on 05/30/2014 12:10 PM
      @Brian Of course, Dave Agar is entitled to his opinion, but his remark this morning still remains STUPID!
  14. Mark7 posted on 05/30/2014 08:24 AM
    In recent photos Hudak is looking remarkably like a Richard Nixon clone...even the 5 o'clock shadow and sweating lip. I think this is an intentional remake to appeal to conservatives and show that he has more balls than those two women he's running against. Nothing better than a Tricky Dick to overcome all that estrogen.
    1. HP posted on 05/30/2014 08:29 AM
      @Mark7 Like Nixon, Hudak is a very dangerous man...voter beware, you have no idea what he will do to the Ontario we know and love.
  15. Sherwin posted on 05/30/2014 09:33 AM
    It's very simple. There are two parties for whom the "best case scenario" is deeper debt, fewer jobs in Ontario, more and larger handouts to special interest groups. Those are the platforms they're running on, mind you, not hidden scandals or secret backroom deals.

    On the other hand, we have the PCs with a plan to create jobs and lower our debt. They are literally the ONLY PARTY who are making any effort to improve our lives. We need to give them that chance.
    1. Brian posted on 05/30/2014 09:47 AM
      @Sherwin Mr Sherwin can you please explain what is this plan that PCs have to create Jobs and don't mention the liberals
    2. Alex posted on 05/30/2014 10:26 AM
      @Sherwin But don't you see, debt and handouts and fewer jobs are good! Debt and handouts make evil businesses less likely to come here and interfere with people living the good life on welfare, and the fewer jobs there are, the more of us that can be on welfare in the first place! It's win-win-win, all around.

      I believe in the combined Liberal-NDP vision of the entire province living off of the government's dime, with nobody shackled to the Profit Machines of Big Business, and everyone receiving as much free money as they need, when they need it. That's why I'll be voting for Wynne!
    3. john posted on 05/30/2014 11:02 AM
      @Sherwin dont waste your time mate . thay will keep voting liberal till the day the company they work for moves out and there is no money in the bank . the mortgage is not paid , thay loose there house to the blood sucking bankers . that got millions of dollers in taxes to pay . that the only way thay are going to wake up . a very rude awakening coming to them .
    4. Brian posted on 05/30/2014 01:06 PM
      @john so are you saying the only reason to vote for Hudak is because the liberals are corrupt? - Hudak don't really have anything to offer that anyone can explain
    5. Jack posted on 05/30/2014 01:12 PM
      @Brian Hudak has a plan to create jobs, lower government spending, and decrease the debt. The other parties have built their platforms around MORE government spending, an employment-killing job tax, taxpayer-funded handouts to special interest groups with no return on investment, and intentionally deepening the debt.

      One of the reasons to vote for Hudak is that the Liberals are corrupt. Another reason is that the PCs appear to be the only party who view debt and joblessness as bad for Ontario, and are demonstrating any fiscal responsibility whatsoever.

      Think about your home finances. Do you cash your paycheck every two weeks, throw it out the window to whoever passes by, and rack up thousands in credit card debt for groceries and hydro once the money's gone? Of course not, because that would be insane. So why is it acceptable to run a government that way?
    6. Brian posted on 05/30/2014 01:41 PM
      @Jack apart from saying Hudak have a plan can you give any details of what is in his plan and how it will work -

      you don't need to say anything about the other parties we all know what they have done
  16. sam posted on 05/30/2014 09:53 AM
    ipsos is pretty much right leaning so it tells me a liberal minority when it's all said and done
    1. Sonny posted on 05/30/2014 10:18 AM
      @sam That will happen when people realize the Hudak scam
    2. john posted on 05/30/2014 11:08 AM
      @Sonny cant be any worse then the liberal one . the whole party is a scam .
  17. Mark7 posted on 05/30/2014 12:13 PM
    To all criminal Fiberal voters, baaaaaaaa.
  18. Alex posted on 05/30/2014 12:43 PM
    Look guys, it's simple: We elect the Liberal/NDP coalition, they'll finish destroying Ontario's entire public sector, and then everyone gets to either work for the government or go on welfare! It's perfect, we all get free money forever and nobody gets to work.
  19. Greg Banks posted on 05/30/2014 12:52 PM
    Interesting good news poll if you a conservative until you start looking behind numbers...The PC's should be running scared
    Northern Ontario (P prefix postal code) 45%NDP 29%Lib 22%PC (How many seats out of the 11 is 22% going to get?) Realistic expectation for the PC's 1 one seat (Fedeli)
    Eastern Ontario (K prefix) 56% PC 25%lib 14%NDP (There are 17 seats here and more than half are rural where the PC's bread is buttered problem is most of the others are congrated around Ottawa a Liberal bastion) Realistic expectation for the PC's 10 or 11 seats
    SouthWestern Ontario (N prefix) 38%PC 28%Lib 26%NDP (There are 21 seats and you are looking at the same scenario as EO except with smaller cities so 2/3 rural 1/3 urban) Realistic expectation for the PC's is 14 seats
    GTA/905 (L prefix) 38%Lib 34%PC 21%NDP ( There is 27 seats in the semi-circle and most are tightly fought unlike those in EO, SWO or CO so the libs will probaly take more seat than the percentage would suggest) Realistic expectation for the PC's is 8 seats
    Central Ontario (L prefix) 46%PC 34%Lib 15%NDP ( There 9 seats up for grabs here and this is the PC heart) Realistic expectation for the PC's 7 seats
    Finally Toronto/416 (M prefix) 44%Lib 25%PC 22%NDP (There is 22 seats here all urban all closely fought) Realistic expecation for The PC's is 1 seat
    That is 42
    So even if what I think is the best case scenario the PC's come up at 12 seats short of majority and unless the NDP make huge inroads on Liberal seats it looks Wynne for the forseeable future....
    1. Fact Provider posted on 05/30/2014 01:22 PM
      @Greg Banks Your breakdown seems to be very close to mine.

      In Eastern Ontario, however, I believe there are probably 2 PC seats you are counting that may very well be taken by the Liberals. This is more or less balanced off by my guess of 10 seats for the PC's of the 27 in the "semi-circle" and 2 in Toronto.
      I put Wynne in the position of a minority win at this point with an outside shot at a slim majority.

      The next 2 weeks will be very interesting - and - when Hudak has his butt kicked all over the parking lot by both the women in the debate - it could get to be downright fun !
    2. Jack posted on 05/30/2014 01:29 PM
      @Fact Provider You and I have very different definitions of "fun", FP. I don't consider watching more and more of my paycheck disappear to taxes while seeing less and less evidence around me of those tax dollars being used responsibly particularly "fun".
    3. Fact Provider posted on 05/30/2014 01:49 PM
      @Jack It's always fun watching the Cons pick weak leader after weak leader - there have been 2 strong PC leaders going all the way back to Bill Davis.
      Davis was successful because of his sensible stance on real issues and events. He was known as a "Red Tory" because he governed from the centre.

      Harris was a strong leader. Unfortunately, he was also a very damaging premier.

      Tory might well have governed like another Bill Davis, but the Party hung him out to dry because he wasn't liked by the Harris left-overs in the Party.

      Of course, if you're hell-bent on having a "Harris X 10", then, by all means, vote for Tea Party Tim - and watch the carnage that results.

      That won't be any fun at all.
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