Ontario's financial watchdog says even if the Ford Government achieves its initial goal of 15,000 new long-term care beds over five years, the province will still need 55,000 by 2033 to meet a growing aging population.
As for the short-term, the wait list will to surge.
"The wait list for a long-term care bed is projected to peak at 40,200 Ontarians next year," the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario reported Wednesday. "Once all the new beds come into service the wait list is projected to be 36,900, still higher than the wait list in 2018-19."
"The FAO projects that the wait time for a long-term care bed will peak at 179 days in 2020-21. This implies that, in the absence of other health sector changes, the problem of hallway health care will get worse over the next two years."
The government already reached 7,889 beds back on October 1st, and had also committed to another 15,000 in the next-five year period.
But the FAO says the 55,000 beds will be needed in 15 years to deal with the projected wait list of almost 37,000 people.
It will cost the province $1.7 billion to establish the beds, followed by an annual cost of $970 million to operate them, the report says.
Health Minister Christine Elliott said once the committed 30,000 beds are done, the government will re-assess.
"We'll need to recalibrate at that point and see what the situation is," she said, while commenting directly on the 55,000 projection. "I can't say as to the specific number, but we certainly do know our senior population is increasing rapidly and that we will need to have more supports and services in place."
That sentiment was echoed by Minister of Long-Term Care, Merrilee Fullerton.
"We have to deal with reality, we have to understand what's coming and prepare for it," she said. "I've watched the neglect of the long-term care sector for the last 15 years and was saying who is buildling capacity?"
The report was the first subject during Wednesday's Question Period.
"The premier recently said that he would end hallway medicine by next summer, is he on track?" NDP Leader Andrea Horwath asked.
"We're well on our way, we're working hard to end hallway health care," Premier Doug Ford said.
Elliott stressed the need to allevaite the bed system by getting more seniors care in their own homes, as well as well finding spaces in retirement homes.