Over two-thirds (65%) of Torontonians believe Mayor John Tory deserves to be re-elected versus 35% who believe that it’s time for a change. To put this in perspective, in 2009 at this point in his term, only 21% said Mayor David Miller deserved to be re-elected compared with 66% in 1999 who believe that Mayor Mel Lastman should be re-elected.
Those who give Mr. Tory the highest marks for re-election escalate according to education with those who have more than post secondary education (60%) or those who are university graduates (70%). More men (67%) than women (63%) support Mr. Tory’s re-election as well as firm majority’s in all age groupings – older (69% aged 55+), younger and middle-aged (64% 18 – 34 and 62% 35 – 54). Even those who are regular users of the TTC are in favour of his re-election (67%).
In terms of geography, Mr. Tory doesn’t dip below 60% in any part of the city with his highest numbers in the Old City of Toronto/Downtown (73%) followed by those in York/East York (70%), Scarborough (62%) and it Etobicoke and North York each at 60%.
As for those who believe it’s time for a change at City Hall (35%), they’re most likely to be lower educated (55%), women (37%) versus men (33%) and middle-aged Torontonians (38%). In terms of geography, those who want him to move on are most likely to hail from Etobicoke (40%) and North York (40%), followed then by those from Scarborough (38%), York/East York (30%) and Old City of Toronto/Downtown (27%).
Torontonians would give current Mayor John Tory 75% consideration to be elected Mayor in the next municipal election versus 36% for former City Councillor Doug Ford, 30% for activist Desmond Cole and only 19% for homegrown celebrity superstar Drake.
Of the 75% of Torontonians who would consider current Mayor John Tory, he has his highest level of consideration from voters in the old city of Toronto/downtown and 83% followed by those in York/East York (81%), Etobicoke (75%), North York (71%) and Scarborough 68%). More men (78%) than women (73%) and those aged 55+ (78%) lead the way. Those who are lower educated are underwhelmed with his consideration at 56%.
Of the 36% who indicate they would consider Doug Ford, he has half (50%) of those in Scarborough followed by those in both Etobicoke and North York (each at 41%), York/East York (22%) and those in the Old City of Toronto/Downtown (20%). Those most likely to consider Mr. Ford are lowest educated (53%) and those with children (48%).
Of the 30% to indicate that they would give consideration for activist Desmond Cole, his highest level of consideration comes from the old city of Toronto/downtown (38%) followed by those in York/East York (34%), North York (28%), Scarborough (26%) and Etobicoke (25%). Mr. Cole is given highest consideration by young people (46% 18 – 34), those with children (40%), those who rent and are employed (36%), and those more likely to take the TTC (38%).
Of the 19% who say that they would consider Drake on the ballot for mayor, they’re more likely to come from North York (24%), have children (31%), be young (29% aged 18 – 34) and women (22%).
In terms of intensity for consideration, Mayor Tory leads (48%) with voters who would consider him a great deal on the 2018 ballot for mayor. Geographically, the Old City of Toronto/Downtown (56%) is foremost followed by York/East York (56%), Etobicoke (49%), North York (44%) and Scarborough (36%).
This compares to Doug Ford who has only 16% of Torontonians who would consider him a great deal in the next election with his greatest geographic support coming from those in Scarborough (22%), Etobicoke (19%), North York (16%), York/East York (11%) and Old City of Toronto/Downtown (8%).
On this measurement alone, the formal mayoralty candidate Mr. Ford has a yawning gap behind Mr. Tory of 32 points among those who would consider either politician a great deal. This is even notable in Mr. Ford’s backyard of Etobicoke were Mr. Tory outpaces Mr. Ford by 30 points.
Drake has 5% and Desmond Cole at 4% of Torontonians who would give either of them great consideration if they were on the ballot.
In the alternative, of those who would not at all consider any candidacy for Mayor on the next municipal ballot, Drake (61%) leads, followed by Doug Ford (53%), Desmond Cole (39%) and Mayor John Tory (13%).
In short, Mr. Ford currently has a 5 to 1 ratio of those who would not at all consider him for mayor (53%) versus incumbent Mayor Tory (13%).