Only 25% of Toronto residents indicate that Premier Kathleen Wynne and her Liberal Party deserve re-election – while 75% indicate that it’s time for a change.
There are virtually no geographic core demographic differences in opinion on either count across the city however of the 25% who believe the Premier and her Liberal Party deserve to be re-elected they’re more likely to be from the Old City of Toronto/Downtown (32%) and North York (29%).
Despite a huge negative view on the remainder of her tenure, there are 45% of Torontonians who are still open to voting for the Liberal Party and Premier Kathleen Wynne depending upon what the campaign brings.
This tenuous backdrop is played off against an astonishing only one in 10 (11%) of Torontonians who say they will absolutely cast their vote for the Liberal Party and Premier Kathleen Wynne in the next election versus 44% who say that they will absolutely NOT cast their vote for the Liberal Party and Premier Kathleen Wynne in the next election.
In short, while there are huge negatives in the air against the Premier and her party with almost no tether to the ground, a vast number of Torontonians have not decided which way the wind to blow for them for next years to vote until they see what Patrick Brown and the Conservatives and Andrea Horwath and the NDP have to offer during the campaign so they can make a choice between the devil they know and perhaps somebody else.
Those most likely to commit their vote (11%) to the Liberal Party and Leader in the next election are older (16% aged 55+) and men (14%) with no other significant characteristics, including geography.
Those most adamant that they will not cast their vote for the Liberal Party and Premier Kathleen Wynne in the next election (44%) are more likely to be those who are lower educated (65%) and are men (47%) versus women (41%). Geographically, Etobicoke (50%) and York/East York (50%) are the highest hills to climb for the Liberals followed by Scarborough (44%), North York (43%) and old city of Toronto/Downtown (37%).
Those most likely to indicate that they are still open to voting for the Liberal Party and Premier Kathleen Wynne in the next election (45%) are regular transit users (52%) women (50%), those with University education or more (49%), and those who are younger (49% aged 18 – 34) or middle aged (47% aged 35 – 54). From a geographic perspective, the Old City of Toronto/Downtown (48%) is the most likely part of Toronto keep their powder dry until the election campaigns unfold followed by those in York/East York (46%), Scarborough (46%), and he told the cold and North York each at 42%.